What most employers don’t realize is that the renewal conversation they’re having in October was largely decided before it started. By the time you see the number, they’ve already done their homework. September is when your homework needs to happen.
The standard programming for renewal season is something you probably know well. It’s where the carrier sends over a number in October (higher than expected) with a few options attached and a short timeline to make a decision. Maybe you push back a little or make a small plan design change but, ultimately, sign.
Then you do it all again next year.
What most employers don’t realize is that the renewal conversation they’re having in October was largely decided before it started. The carrier has been analyzing your claims data all year and they know what your utilization looks like. In fact, they’ve built their renewal number around what that data shows. By the time you see the number, they’ve already done their homework. The question is whether you have done yours. September is when that homework needs to happen.
Your carrier receives claims data throughout the year. By September, they have eight or nine months of your plan's performance to work with. They know which benefits your employees are using and which ones they're avoiding. They know where your claims are concentrated. They know whether your utilization patterns suggest a healthy, well-managed plan or one with trends that are likely to produce higher costs going forward.
They use all of that to build your renewal number. Instead of a random figure, it’s the output of an analysis that’s been running since your last renewal. And unless you’ve been looking at the same data, you’re walking into that conversation without the context you need to evaluate whether the number is fair, negotiate effectively, or make a real decision about alternatives.
The employers who show up to renewal with leverage are the ones who did the same analysis. They know what their data shows and have already modeled what different plan structures would cost. They have a point of view going into the conversation instead of just a reaction to whatever the carrier presents.
The reason September matters specifically is timing. It’s the last point in the calendar where you have enough runway to do the preparation correctly before renewal pressure compresses the timeline.
At 120 days before renewal, you can pull your utilization data and actually read it. You can understand what your claims picture looks like and what it is likely to mean for your renewal number. You can identify the trends worth addressing and, in some cases, still do something about them before the carrier finalizes their analysis.
At 90 days, you can model structural alternatives. These include plan design changes, contribution strategy shifts, or even different carrier options if the market makes sense to explore. Modeling those options takes time, and the only way to have it is to start before October.
At 60 days, you can go to market if the carrier's initial number does not reflect what the data supports. Going to market requires lead time, so starting the conversation in October with a renewal date in November takes away that opportunity. This difference in a month is where we see the most dramatic renewal outcomes, for better or worse.
Here’s the thing about September that I want founders to sit with. If your broker is not reaching out to you this month with something substantive—a request to review your utilization data, a conversation about your renewal strategy, a preliminary read on what the renewal outlook looks like—** what does that tell you about what October is going to look like?**
A broker who is doing the job correctly is thinking about your account in September. They’re not waiting for the carrier to move and then reacting. They’re building the case for a better outcome before the renewal conversation starts, because that is when the case can still be built.
If you’re not hearing from your broker right now in a meaningful way, you have two choices. You can accept that October is going to look like it always has. Or you can use the time that still exists in September to change what October looks like.
Pull your utilization report. If you haven’t seen your claims data since your last renewal, ask your broker for it now and schedule time to walk through what it shows together. That conversation will tell you more about your renewal than anything else you could do this month.
Ask your broker directly what the renewal outlook looks like based on your current data. This will give you a real read on what the trends suggest and what options are worth modeling before the carrier sends over their number.
And if those conversations do not produce something useful, treat that as information about what your renewal preparation is actually going to look like, and decide whether you want to change it before October arrives.
~
Brian Allen | President, evco | Managing benefits for 36,000+ lives since 2005
The most useful thing a CFO can do before October arrives is get specific about what they actually know going into renewal. If you can answer these questions, you’re in a different position than most.
Expanding into a new state is a growth milestone for any company. And? It also quietly introduces a layer of HR and benefits complexity that most founders are not prepared for, because nobody tells them it's coming until something goes wrong.
Here’s a pattern I see in almost every company that comes to us after years of managing benefits reactively: The plan isn't the problem. The communication around it is.
Benefits touch the most important parts of people's lives—health, family, and financial security. Employers and employees deserve guidance, care, and confidence instead of confusion and stress.